At COP31, what model of civilization will we choose?

A pivotal moment

Antalya,^[1]in Turkey, is currently hosting the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP31, running through Nov. 20, 2026. It will bring together representatives from nearly 200 countries, scientists, civil society organizations, business leaders and popular movements. Lula will participate.

It will not be just another diplomatic meeting, but another opportunity — perhaps one of the last before even more devastating consequences occur — to demonstrate that humanity is capable of acting collectively in the face of a threat that respects no borders, passports or ideologies.

The importance of COP31 lies above all in the moment at which it is taking place. The planet is experiencing successive temperature records, prolonged droughts, catastrophic floods, wildfires, melting glaciers and rising sea levels.

Science leaves no room for doubt that the climate crisis is primarily the result of human activity, especially the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and a model of production and consumption that treats nature as an inexhaustible commodity.

The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, set the goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, while seeking to keep it to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.

However, the gap between commitments made and measures actually implemented remains alarming. COP31 must confront this contradiction: sustainability has never been discussed so much, yet fortunes are still being invested in everything that threatens it.

From targets to implementation

The Turkish presidency has announced that it intends to put implementation at the center of the conference. This is a necessary shift in emphasis. It is not enough to announce targets for 2035 or 2050. Deadlines, monitoring mechanisms, funding sources and clearly defined responsibilities must be established.

One of the priorities is to accelerate the global electrification of the economy, with a proposal to reach 35% by 2035. This will require expanding renewable energy, modernizing electricity grids, promoting clean public transportation and reducing dependence on coal, oil and gas.

Another challenge is to advance climate adaptation. Countries and populations already suffering from droughts, floods, desertification and rising sea levels need resources to protect their cities, ensure access to drinking water, preserve food production and rebuild communities affected by disasters.

The conference is also expected to discuss ocean protection, methane emissions reductions, a just energy transition and the development of indicators capable of measuring the results of climate policies.

The climate finance deadlock

One of the most difficult deadlocks will concern climate finance. At COP29 in Baku, countries agreed to mobilize at least $300 billion annually by 2035 for developing countries, as part of a broader effort — the “Baku to Belém Roadmap” — to reach US$1.3 trillion a year from all public and private sources combined. But there is an uncomfortable question: Who will foot the bill?

Industrialized countries grew wealthy over centuries by burning coal, oil and gas. They accumulated wealth at the cost of emissions that contributed decisively to environmental degradation.

Now African, Latin American and Asian nations, which historically have contributed far less to global warming, are among the most vulnerable to its effects.

This is a matter of historical justice. Poor countries need resources to adapt, protect their populations and develop clean technologies. They cannot be forced to take on new debts to confront a crisis they did not create.

It is also necessary to distinguish between loans and grants. Offering credit to countries already burdened with debt so they can deal with the damage caused by climate change amounts to making victims pay for their own rescue.

The fight over fossil fuels

Perhaps no issue provokes as much resistance as the replacement of fossil fuels. At COP28 in Dubai, countries agreed for the first time to promote a transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems.

At COP30 in Belém, however, the final text dropped all fossil-fuel language entirely, with no roadmap for phasing out coal, oil or gas, after major producers including Russia, Saudi Arabia and India opposed it, as reported by Euronews and NPR.

COP31 will have to take up the issue again. There is a proposed roadmap that could guide countries in progressively reducing their dependence on oil, coal and gas. But resistance from oil-producing countries, combined with the interests of powerful energy companies, makes any binding commitment difficult.

It is an almost surreal contradiction: Governments acknowledge that burning fossil fuels heats the planet, yet they continue to subsidize their extraction and expansion.

The issue is not simply a matter of shutting down oil wells or turning off coal-fired power plants overnight. It is about building a planned transition, with alternative energy sources, protection for people, job creation and guaranteed access to energy for the poorest populations.

The politics of consensus

There is also a political obstacle. COPs depend on multilateral negotiations and, in practice, on building consensus. It takes only one group of countries to resist for ambitious decisions to be watered down or blocked.

National interests frequently take precedence over collective survival. Wealthy countries do not want to jeopardize their economic competitiveness. Oil-producing countries fear losing revenue and geopolitical influence.

Developing nations assert their right to grow and reduce poverty. And major corporations seek to protect their profits.

Added to this is international instability, marked by wars, trade disputes, nationalism and the weakening of multilateralism.

COP31 will also have a diplomatic peculiarity: Turkey will host and preside over the conference — with Turkish Environment Minister Murat Kurum as COP president — while Australia, under its climate minister Chris Bowen, leads the negotiations, an unprecedented split arrangement agreed at COP30 and confirmed by the UNFCCC. This unprecedented arrangement will show whether this division of responsibilities facilitates or complicates the building of agreements.

Brazil’s responsibility after Belém

After COP30, held in Belém, Brazil has a special responsibility. The Amazon is not merely a Brazilian heritage site; it plays a fundamental role in the world’s climate balance.

Preserving it means protecting biodiversity, Indigenous peoples, traditional communities and the water cycles that sustain agriculture and life across vast regions of the continent.

But defending the forest in international speeches is not enough. It is necessary to fight deforestation, illegal mining, land grabbing and violence against Indigenous peoples. And it must be demonstrated that economic development does not have to mean environmental destruction.

What model of civilization?

At its core, COP31 confronts a question that goes beyond diplomacy: What model of civilization do we want to build?

The climate crisis is not merely environmental. It is also social, economic, ethical and political. Its effects primarily harm the poor, who live in high-risk areas, depend directly on nature for their survival and have fewer resources to protect themselves from disasters.

There will be no lasting climate solution without fighting inequality. Nor will there be a just energy transition if the costs are passed on to workers and vulnerable populations while profits remain concentrated in the hands of a few.

The Earth does not need impassioned speeches or photographs of smiling heads of state standing before sustainability displays. It needs decisions, resources, verifiable commitments and political courage.

Humanity already has sufficient scientific knowledge and technology to change course. What is missing is the political will to confront powerful economic interests.

The question the Antalya meeting must answer is simple and dramatic: Are governments willing to put humanity’s survival ahead of business profitability?

The planet will continue to exist. The question is whether it will remain habitable for all of us.

Note

[1] In biblical times, Antalya was known as Attalia (Attaleia), a name given in honor of King Attalus II of Pergamon, who founded the city around 150 B.C. In the New Testament, Attalia is mentioned in Acts 14:25–26. After proclaiming the Gospel in Perga, Paul and Barnabas went down to Attalia and sailed from there to Antioch in Syria. Thus, the city that will host COP31 has a biblical connection to the missionary journeys of Paul and Barnabas.

This is a translated and edited version of the column that first appeared on Instituto Humanitas Unisinos and has been republished with permission.